A paper ‘A Normal Nuclear Pakistan’ by renowned American scholars Tom Dalton and Michael Krepon states that within a decade Pakistan could have the third-biggest nuclear stockpile.
The 48-page report also mention that at the current pace Pakistan could end up producing 20 nuclear warheads annually.
This means, the report warns, in 10 years it could possess a nuclear arsenal nearing 350 weapons, the world’s third-largest stockpile after the US and Russia and twice that of India.
In contrast to Pakistan’s capacity to produce 20 nuclear warheads annually, India appears to be producing about five warheads annually.
The report said Pakistan operates four plutonium production reactors while India operates one.
The report added that given its larger economy and sizable nuclear infrastructure, India can outpace Pakistan in fissile material and warhead production if it chose to.
Pakistani’s primary means of delivering nuclear weapons, are through cruise and ballistic missile systems. A report, titled “Pakistan’s Evolving Nuclear Weapons Infrastructure”, has used commercially-available satellite images to identify ten Pakistani facilities, including five missile garrisons and at least two air bases, which have been used to assemble and house nuclear missile launchers.
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has also expressed his worries about Pakistan’s nuclear expansion and said India is aware of it and is taking all steps to safeguard India’s national interest.
“The government is aware of reports on the expansion of Pakistan’s capability for fissile material production for nuclear weapons,” he informed the Lok Sabha.
Pakistan has a nuclear stockpile of between 130 and 140 nuclear warheads, according to a group of American scientists, whose tally is partially based on close scrutiny of satellite images and matches other recent estimates.
As per studies done at the University of Colorado-Boulder, and the University of California-Los Angeles, if both countries detonated 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs, it would generate between 1 and 5 million tons of smoke. This would drive temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere down to levels too cold for wheat production in much of Canada and Russia. And a 10 percent drop in rainfall would exhaust worldwide food supplies, leading to the starvation of up to 100 million or more people.