Uttar Pradesh – politically the most important state in the country – will go to polls next year. Already, political leaders and pundits have geared up for the high pitched battle in the crucial assembly elections that will have repurcussions for the whole nation.
As per a India TV-CVoter survey, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the ruling Samajwadi Party appear to be in a neck-and-neck contest. Bahujan Samaj Party, which once ruled the state, is projected to come third.
The BJP is projected to win within a range of 134 to 150 seats, while the ruling SP is projected to win 133 to 149 seats, both short of a clear majority in the 403-seat assembly.
While the BSP is likely to get 95 to 111 seats, the Congress, will get only 5 to 13 seats.’Others’, including independents, are projected to win within a range of 4 to 12 seats.
The survey is based on a “random stratified sample” of 20,642 respondents interviewed across all 403 assembly segments between August 1 and 31, and the data have been weighted to known demographic profile, according to CVoter, which conducted the survey.
What’s surprising for the BJP is that it is projected to get 27.79 per cent vote — with a huge swing of 12.78 percent in its favour — compared to 15.01 percent that the party garnered in the 2012 assembly polls.
The SP will get 27.51 per cent, a 1.64 percent drop from its 2012 vote share of 29.15 per cent.
The BSP comes third with 25.44 percent, a 0.47 drop from its 2012 votes share of 25.91 percent.
UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav leads the list of ‘first choice for CM post’ with 32.8 per cent in his favour, closely followed by BSP supremo Mayawati with 28.2 per cent.
“Any BJP leader” gets 26 per cent support while Congress chief ministerial candidate Sheila Dikshit comes fourth with 5.1 percent.
The BJP is yet to announce its chief ministerial candidate in UP.
During the survey, a large number of people wanted a change in the current state government.
On the state government’s score card, the respondents gave 7.7 out of 10 marks to Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, while they gave only 3.5 out of 10 marks for law and order.
The BJP, which grabbed 71 of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 general elections, is making a big push to win the state in a bid to drive key reforms at the Centre.
On the other hand, the SP government is in a hurry to complete its mega flagship programmes and projects, and not without reason. In run up to the 2017 Uttar Pradesh polls, chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has hinted at including the free mobile handset scheme in the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) election manifesto. The present UP assembly’s tenure expires in March next year, and the elections are due in January-February.