In the upcoming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is likely emerge as the single largest party, with the BSP and the SP falling at second and third place.
Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is projected to trail the BJP with a seat share in the range of 115-124. BSP’s prospects have taken a hit given the recent high profile exits. Following Swami Prasad Maurya’s exit, another leader RK Chaudhary had quit the BSP. After quitting the party, Chaudhary alleged that BSP supremo Mayawati had been giving tickets for money and now only rich businessmen can be seen in the party.
The incumbent Samajwadi Party is expected to win 94-103 seats in polls. A big reason for this was the fight between the Yadav clan which brought to the fore that all is not well between Akhilesh, Shivpal and Ramgopal. Given the recent spat it looks like everyone is pushing his own agenda depending on how Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam is disposed to it. Moreover, there has been continuous pull and counter-pull within the party and this has impacted the preparation of the party in the upcoming polls.
The results are surprising as a similar study in August by polling agency CVoter suggested a close contest between the BJP and SP. Moreover, a CSDS opinion survey put the SP in the lead followed by the BJP.
As many as 54 per cent of the respondents said they disagreed with the notion of Congress Mukt Bharat.
The BJP is gaining big as it is getting support of Other Backward Classes in the state with 44 per cent of the non-Yadav OBCs saying that they will vote for the lotus symbol.
In addition, the upper castes of UP also appear to be firmly backing the BJP, with 61 per cent pledging their support.
Not surprisingly, a majority (71 per cent) of the Dalit respondents indicated that they would be voting for the BSP.